Winning Streak Gone

So much for my "winning streak" in taking the free early morning train. I left home a little late today (710am), which on normal days should still be all right for the 745am timing. But after a six minute wait at Lorong Chuan MRT, an out-of-the-ordinary four minute wait at Bishan MRT, and a very slow train down to Raffles Place, I only managed to exit at 755am.

I need to be even more disciplined and leave home by 7am sharp. 

Free train rides

Achievement unlocked - one full week of free train rides in the morning! This means that I exited Raffles Place MRT station by 745am everyday, which saved me around $7 in fares.

While I am definitely not doing it to save on the fares, I find it very useful as an anchor for me to leave home. It provided me with a strict timeline as to when I should reach office. Without it, even if I wake up early, I would probably take my time in the morning (it's still so early anyway!) and reach only by 830am. With this anchor, I know that I must leave home latest by 710am in order to reach Raffles Place by 745am.

Maybe I should now aim for my next achievement - one full month of free train rides in the morning!

Should bus fares go up?

Today, the Straits Times had an article called "Bus fares may go up to help improve drivers' pay". In it, it states that our Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew expressed that drivers need to be paid more, and that public transport operators will be allowed to do so in the ongoing fare review. 

The name of this article is obviously to skew the reader's opinion - in that, bus fares will go up to help the drivers. It shifts the attention from the profits of the public transport operators to the plight of the bus drivers, who are not getting paid enough, apparently. But as a member of the public, why should I care? SMRT, as a group, still made around S$120m of profits in their financial year 2012. Why are we forced to pay more just because you can't make money? For other goods, if merchants were to increase prices, customers have the option not to buy it. But for public transport, this isn't possible. 

But the intention of this post is not to complain about SMRT raising fares. Enough has been said (or is it complained?) on this - on social media, forums, etc. But what if we look at this from the perspective of a private company?

A private company's purpose is to make profits. From SMRT's annual statement, one can see that SMRT has several revenue divisions, namely trains, LRT, buses, taxis, rental, advertising, and others. The bus division lost S$1.7m in FY2011, and S$11.6m in FY2012. If I run SMRT, would I still be willing to increase costs when the business is not making money, and is not foreseen to turn profitable anytime soon? And for SMRT's benefit, group profit after tax for their financial year 2012 has gone down rather significantly (although it is certainly still positive).

FY2008: S$149.9m

FY2009: S$162.7m

FY2010: S$162.9m

FY2011: S$161.1m

FY2012: S$119.9m (25.6% drop from FY2011)

FY2012 also coincides with a big increase in capital expenditure, increasing from S$100m to S$190m in the previous four financial years to almost S$500m in FY2012. But one thing to note is that FY2012's revenue is actually the highest since FY2008 (I didn't bother to look before FY2008). If revenue was highest and yet profits were lowest, we can deduce that costs would be the main determinant, although this is spread out across all their divisions. 

The public would demand SMRT to cut costs and be more efficient. From the top of my mind, here are some of the costs I can think of when it comes to the bus division: wages (bus drivers and other staff), depreciation of buses, motor insurance, employee insurance, cleaning services, petrol, inspection, bus maintenance and servicing. It doesn't seem like these can be cut so easily, assuming that they have already looked into cutting them. They stated that they are exploring vehicles using alternative energy, such as electric buses, but this does not seem possible to realise in the short term.

So what is easiest would be to increase revenue. Advertising is one thing, which they should already be doing. Another is to increase bus ridership. But the more direct measure would be to increase bus fares. Let's take another look at the bus division's numbers.

FY2011: Revenue was S$213.1m, while earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was -S$1.7m. 

FY2012: Revenue was S$220.4m, while EBIT was -S$11.6m.

Simplistically speaking, we can assume that costs were S$232m in FY2012. If I am able to increase bus fares by 8%, this would point to a revenue of S$238m with S$6m profits, or a profit margin of 2.5%. This doesn't look too unreasonable. But how much would be a 8% increase in bus fares?

From their website, bus fares range from $0.73 to $1.96. In practice, if bus fares were to increase, it would not go up uniformly across all distance tiers. But a simple calculation would give some insight. Fare increases would range from 6 cents to 16 cents. And according to LTY, fare increases have only been 0.3% cumulatively over the past five to six years, while operating costs have risen by about 30%.

However, SMRT reports advertising revenue separately from the bus division, so perhaps it would be fairer to allocate the advertising revenue from buses back to the bus division. There is no breakdown of advertising revenue, so I am unable to determine how much of their FY2012 advertising profit (S$19.2m) came from the bus division. But if we were to allocate it proportionately, it should make the real figures look better, and perhaps fare increases need not be 8% but 6% to 7%, for example.

So from the perspective of a private company, I would not necessarily support the fare increases, but I would at least understand the rationale behind it. Of course, whether SMRT should be publicly or privately run is a separate issue entirely.

More costs or less revenue?

According to our Minister of Transport Lui Tuck Yew, transport operators will need to incur S$28 million of costs if they were to give polytechnic students full student travel concessions. The exact wording is:

"On the estimated additional cost to the operators if polytechnic students are given full student travel concessions, it will cost the operators about $28 million per year based on today's fares."

(Sourced from the Ministry of Transport webpage)

Let's not debate over whether polytechnic students should be given full student travel concessions or not. What I wish to highlight is his choice of words, mainly, "it will cost the operators". 

Earning less revenue is different from incurring more costs. Do the operators need to fork out more money to give polytechnic students concessions? No. They simply earn less. So LTY's statement is wrong. The additional cost should only refer to the costs in administering the concession for polytechnic students, for example, manpower costs, IT costs for modifying the system to allow the concession, and so on. 

Thus, a more correct way of putting it would be: 

"If polytechnic students are given full student travel concessions, operators will earn about S$28 million less per year based on today's fares." 

Obviously he could not put it this way, because it would seem like he is more concerned with the operators' profits. If one were to assume that the student travel concession is a right for polytechnic students, one could even rephrase the sentence to:

"If polytechnic students are not given full student travel concessions, operators will earn about S$28 million more per year based on today's fares."

Train delay galore, Episode 03

I can't believe it. SMRT broke down again this morning, making it the third train delay in four days. What is wrong with them?

I heard the news from 938 Live, and the delay seemed like a contagious illness which affected Marina Bay to Newton MRT stations first. It then started spreading to the other stations followed by several 'false recoveries'. Here's the condition of the 'patient', from SMRT website (yes, they finally bothered to update it in a more timely manner):

755am: No train services between Marina Bay and Newton

818am: No train services between Marina Bay and Toa Payoh (condition worsened)

825am: Northbound train services from Raffles Place to Jurong East have been restored, but still no northbound train from Marina Bay to Raffles Place (moderate recovery)

850am: Northbound train services from Raffles Place to Ang Mo Kio are down again, and southbound train services from Ang Mo Kio to Marina Bay are now unavailable (condition deteriorated sharply)

900am: Northbound train services from Raffles Place to Jurong East are available again (moderate recovery)
1000am: Southbound train services from Ang Mo Kio to Toa Payoh have been restored
1055am: Southbound train services from Toa Payoh to Newton have been restored
118pm: Southbound train services from Toa Payoh to Raffles Place have been restored
148pm: All services have been fully restored, but expect delays. (fully recovered but relapses are expected)

I hope there isn't an episode 04 to this.

Train delays galore

Dear SMRT, what is your problem recently? After the Circle Line train delay yesterday during the morning peak hours, you pull another train delay on the North South Line today during the evening peak hours?

The Land Transport Authority (LTA) will probably investigate these incidences and fine SMRT. But how much will it be? Considering that SMRT made a net profit (before tax) of S$191.7m in FY2010, how much should the fine be in order to be significant? For the recent security lapse at Bishan MRT depot in August, they were fined S$200,000. In absolute terms, S$200,000 may seem like a lot. But this is just 0.02% of their gross revenue, or 0.10% of their net profit. As further evidence, with regards to this event, their CEO Saw Phaik Hwa said in a seemingly flippant manner, "If LTA fines us, so be it." 

Maybe I should buy  some SMRT shares to make myself feel better whenever I get stuck in a train delay or when I feel irritated that they were fined just a nominal amount.

Now, I wonder what would Saw Phaik Hwa say this time? Last month she still had the audacity to comment that "I don't see anything significant" in the number of train disruptions and delays.

Additionally, according to the Straits Times, SMRT claimed to have issued travel advisories on signs at stations to inform passengers of the reduced frequencies. Well, I took the train yesterday morning from Lorong Chuan and there were absolutely no such signs. If there were, I could have walked just 3 minutes to the nearby bus stop to take a bus to Toa Payoh MRT, instead of being stuck at the train station for 20 minutes.

For the train delay just now, I went to their website for more information during the delay. There was nothing. For such a major train delay, SMRT did not even bother to update their website or Facebook page.

Update as of 928pm:

SMRT finally bothered to post something on their website at 835pm and 856pm. Hello, the delay started before 7pm! What took you so long?

Uncle, take it easy lah

I used to see this irritating uncle in the morning when I take the Circle Line MRT to work. He is perpetually in a rush, and when the train arrives at Lorong Chuan, he would get off the cabin and move to the head of the train - so that he is closest to the escalator at the next stop, Bishan. And he would time himself such that he goes into the cabin last. Why? So that he can be the first to get off. 

After not seeing him for several months, I met him again this morning. This time, he was already at the train head, standing right in front of the train doors. When the train doors opened, he grudgingly moved aside slightly to let people in. I happened to be the last, so I (purposely) took his original spot. I could tell that he was a bit flustered and irritated as he kept on throwing quick glances at me. A few seconds later, he even tried to inch towards me in an attempt to position himself better to be the first one out. But I stood my ground and even put my paper-bag strategically beside me to fend him off. All this while I had my eyes fixed on my PSP.

So when the train reached Bishan, I was the one first out. Unsurprisingly, he quickly overtook me and half-ran up the escalator to catch the North-South train. I looked at the sign - 'Train Arriving' (which actually means Train Arrived) - and from the number of people who were walking in my opposite direction, I figured that the train would be leaving soon and I wouldn't make it. So I took it easy. 

Uncle didn't, however. When I reached the North-South train, the train had just left and he was nowhere in sight. Evidently, he had managed to catch the train. Damn it.

Stupid MRT designs

Serangoon MRT

Serangoon MRT, transit area

This picture is taken at the transit area between the Northeast Line and Circle Line. What's the point of building two narrow travellators when the corridor is so huge? Why not just build wider travellators which can allow three people to walk abreast? So much space is wasted in the middle, and one person can easily hog up the whole travellator. 

Lorong Chuan MRT

Lorong Chuan MRT

Another flawed design. The station has two exits. People coming in from exit A (left of the picture) are forced to use the lift to reach the platform. If not, they would have to go one big round, almost reaching exit B (far end of the picture), in order to take the escalator. Why not just build an escalator or a staircase for people accessing from exit A? A staircase should make more economical sense too (assuming no architectural issues).

Now on the lift. There are two gantries there (refer to picture), and both are two-directional. This means that when the lift arrives and you fail to reach the gantry before the people coming out of the lift, you will have to wait outside while everyone exits using both gantries. And of course, while waiting, chances are that someone else presses the lift downstairs, so the lift goes down without carrying anyone. And what comes naturally is that the train would come while you are fuming and waiting for the lift to come up again (I know I do). 

The solution is simple. Since people who exit the lift do not have to rush to catch the next train, why not just set one gantry to one-direction only for people who are entering? In this way, people entering the gantry can catch the lift while it is still there. This saves time for commuters and electricity - the lift does not have to make a wasted trip down carrying no one.

Alternatively, just add one more gantry there instead of two, so two gantries can be one-directional (in opposite directions) while the wider gantry for disabled passengers can remain two-directional. 

98% is very high! Wait, is it?

Today, the Straits Times reported that "Singapore's rail network experienced 40 service disruptions lasting more than 10 minutes each in a one-year period between April 2010 and March 2011 - or nearly one per week."

Actually, 40 disruptions in 52 weeks - that's only 0.77 disruptions per week. It's surprising that the Straits Times actually rounded 0.77 to "nearly one", since it is rather misleading. 

Still, both SMRT and SBS Transit were not fined despite the high frequency of disruptions. This was because performance standards were still met, with train services being available "at least 98 per cent of the time".

While 98% sounds like a pretty high minimum standard, this cannot be further from the truth. Let's see what 98% is. Assuming that trains operate for 18 hours a day for 365 days, it means that it is perfectly all right for trains to be unavailable for 131.4 hours, or around 5.5 days in a year. This is, of course, based on operating hours as an assumption. 

So is 98% very high? I think not.

East West line morning peak hours

Two days ago, I had to attend a seminar at Hotel Intercontinental at 830am. Since I stayed along the Circle Line, I decided to take the CL to Paya Lebar and transit to Bugis MRT. It was the first time I took the East West line during morning peak hours. 

Upon reaching Paya Lebar, I boarded the EW line and was pleasantly surprised to find that there was plenty of room in the train. It was only half a minute later that I realised... that I had boarded the east-bound train instead.

I got off at the next stop (Eunos). And then I experienced how bad the rush hour crowd was. There was totally no room for me to squeeze in, and I had to wait for 4 trains before I could squeeze in. In my 3 years taking the south-bound train at Bishan MRT, I have only not managed to board the train twice. 

Conclusion: I am never going to stay along the EW line. 

What irks me in the MRT

• People who are fortunate to get a seat and yet cross their legs and stick their leg out, eating into the standing space of passengers (culprits are mostly women)
• People who lean on the support poles, preventing others from holding it for support
• People (inside the train) who start squeezing towards the door when the train hasn't stopped moving
• People who stand in front of the MRT doors (with their noses practically touching the door) waiting to rush in to grab seats. This is very prevalent in Raffles Place MRT in the evening

MRT privileged seat - is it a right?

Last evening, I was on my way home on a packed MRT carriage. A pregnant lady boarded shortly after, squeezed her way to the privileged seat (without any 'excuse me'), stood in front of it, and scowled at the passenger occupying it. Upon seeing a pregnant lady, that passenger hurriedly stood up and gave up her seat. And the lady just sat down without a word of thanks.

I was both amused and disgusted. Firstly, squeezing your way deep into a packed train carriage can cause quite a bit of inconvenience, so the least you could do is to say 'excuse me'. Secondly, there are nicer ways to ask for a seat. A simple "sorry, do you mind giving me the seat?" would suffice - and I doubt if many people will outright refuse. (If someone did, he or she will be in for a barrage of dirty looks, including from me.) To add on, the train was packed, so that passenger couldn't see the pregnant lady until she was practically face to face with her tummy. It's not as if she was pretending not to see. And lastly, is it so difficult to thank someone for giving up their seat?

The seat is hers by privilege and not by right. The public is encouraged to give up their seats to the needy, but they are not compelled to. The lady was treating it as if it's her right. Not only that, she seemed to think that no one else should have sat there as long as they don't deserve it - that probably explains her scowl.

This is also one reason why I always prefer to stand in the train.