Life and Multiple Regression

Multiple regression - a term usually only understood by mathematical people. The purpose of multiple regression is to learn more about the relationship between several independent variables and a dependent variable. For example, the price of a property (the dependent variable) may depend on independent variables such as location, size, number of bedrooms, type of housing, etc. 

Thus, the equation can be listed as such:

Y = a + b₁X₁ + b₂X₂ + ....... + b_nX_n

where X = the independent variable, and b = how much each independent variable contributes to the dependent variable. 

Now, this is not an entry about the technicalities of multiple regression. I was just thinking, life can actually be defined by a multiple regression equation. Or rather, to be more precise, an infinite multiple regression equation. Say, life = L. The equation would then be:

L = c + d₁Y₁ + d₂Y₂ + ........ + d_nX_n

where each Y is, by itself, a multiple regression equation, and d has the same meaning as b above, which is the sensitivity of the dependent variable to the independent variable.

So as an example, some examples of the Y variables would be family, friends, education, country, weather, health, food... basically, everything under the sky. If we were to use family, friends, and weather only as an example, it would mean that how our life is would depend entirely on these 3 variables.

Family would definitely be a major influencing factor, so the sensitivity could be very high, say, 0.8 (out of a maximum of 1). Family itself would be a multiple regression equation, with independent variables like number of siblings, sibling ranking (are you the eldest? or middle child?), whether your siblings are brothers or sisters or a mixture, how well your parents get along, how wealthy your family is, etc.

Friends could be another big factor, so let's put the sensitivity at 0.6. This dependent variable would be another multiple regression equation with independent variables like number of friends you have, how close you are to them, age of your friends, gender, bullying, etc.

Weather sounds like a ridiculous variable, but it could still affect our lives. The sensitivity would definitely be much lower, say, 0.03 - and independent variables would be how much it affects your mood (are you especially irritated when its hot?), your health (hot and humid weather makes you fall sick more easily?) etc.

As for the sensitivity (the constants d and b), each of us would definitely have different scores. And these scores are not necessarily static throughout our lives - they may change too. As we grow older, we may be less easily affected by friends, for example. This would indicate a decrease in sensitivity.

Of course, in real life, the sensitivity would have different figures depending on whether the outcome is positive or negative. In normal multiple regression, a high sensitivity would work both ways - it amplifies the outcome, no matter good or bad. But for humans, this may not be the case. A person who treats career as extremely important (high sensitivity) may not necessarily be crushed by despair if he loses his job (a negative event, which, when multiplied by the high sensitivity, would indicate a huge negative outcome). He may actually start looking for a new job with determination.

Maybe God uses some dice to pre-determine our sensitivity before we are born?

Tips and Strategies for Words with Friends

Contrary to popular belief, WWF is not about vocabulary. It is about tile placement, defense, and 2-3 letter words, most of which don't make sense. (WTF is OI?) Here are some tips and strategies.

• Be defensive. Don't give your opponent access to power squares (especially TW!) unless it is worth it (i.e. you think you can get more points even if your opponent uses that TW).
• Try putting a tile with a higher score on a power square (DL, TL) first and try out some weird words and combinations. If you can also access a DW or TW at the same time, it's gonna be a killer, because the letter is multiplied 2 times (e.g. TL + TW = multiply by 3 twice = x 9). One of my best records was 'OZONE' - the 'Z' was on the TL and the 'E' was on the TW, so this gave me more than 100 points.
• Avoid placing vowels next to power squares like DL and TL. Doing it means giving your opponent a perfect setup to use his power tiles.
• Store your asses, I mean, 'S's. 'S' is a good word stealer because you can create a new word and steal an existing word with ease. Calculate the value of putting it down. Is it giving you only an extra 4 points? Only use it when it really makes a difference.
• 'C' and 'V' are good words to start or end a word - because there are no 2 letter words beginning or ending with 'C' or 'V'. You can, say, form 'VET' with the 'V' ending near a TW tile and not worry about your opponent exploiting it.
• Don't be reluctant to pass if your tiles suck. Perseverance in putting 1 or 2 tiles at a time in the hope of getting better tiles may not pay off in the long run.
• If you can't exploit a power square, make sure your opponent can't. Ruin it! 'C' and 'V' are especially good for this.
• Following up on the previous point, if you can't even ruin it, open up another power square! So that when your opponent uses one of them, you can (hopefully) use the other in the next turn and even out the score.
• Be familiar with 2 letter words. As mentioned, most of them do not make sense. Some important 2 letter words include QI, ZA, JO, XI, XU, AX, EX - as you can see, they involve the power letters 'Q', 'Z', 'J', and 'X'. Double vowel words are good too, for example AA, AE, AI, OE, OI - they are especially useful on the final round where you are trying to get rid of all your tiles, or to prevent your opponent from accessing a power square.
• Don't just think of forming long words. Forming words that are parallel to other words can give you lots of points. This is where 2 letter words work wonders. Also, it is defensive.
• 'X' is a godsend. It is the best power letter because it has five 2-letter combinations - EX, XI, XU, OX, AX. For example, if there is a TL, you can easily earn more than 50 points. E.g. EX and XI at one go.
• Be familiar with words involving the power letters. Some examples: QI(s), QAT(s), QUID, QAID, QUAD, QUOD, WHIZ, WIZ, ZAX, HAJI, JIMP, JIVE(d,s), JOWL, JAY(s).
• Memorise how many tiles there are from each letter. This is really hardcore, but the benefits can be enormous. There are 104 tiles, and the more important ones to remember are 'Z', 'Q', 'J', 'X', 'K' (one each), jokers (two), and 'S' (five). How useful can it be? For example, if you have a 'Z' and access to TW, knowing that all the other power letters have been used up will give you the confidence to exploit the TW without worrying. It can also give you a rough idea of what tiles your opponent has in the final turn, so you can actually predict how he is going to move.
• Stuck with a high score letter and there are only 3 tiles left in the game? Swap it! If it is a 'Z' and there are no more 'A's to put ZA, swap it away so that your opponent will get it in his next turn. If he is also unable to use it when the game ends, this gives an extra 20 points in your favour. (If the game ends and you still have remaining tiles, their total points is subtracted from your score and added to your opponent's.) Of course, if he manages to use it, then good luck to you.

Negativity

Workplace negativity is like a contagious disease. It saps people's energy, and precious time and resources need to be channelled to handle it instead of to something more deserving.

I know someone who seems to be the epitome of negativity and despair. As a brief introduction, she belongs to a support department. So obviously one of her job responsibilities is to support others, yes? But when some tasks had to be done, she refused to do them and pushed them to someone else. Not only that - she even said, "We help everyone, but who help us?"

In the past, she even posted on her msn: "Feel like quitting. Just feel like quitting." My first thought was, "Then quit?" Far better for her to quit and find a new (and happier) job then to stay, complain, and spread her negativity. However, I seriously doubt that she can be happy elsewhere, unless she is willing to change herself. Contrary to popular belief, our internal thoughts can change the environment - but too many people let the environment control our internal self.

"Dwelling on the negativity simply contributes to its power." - Michael Pritchard

Singapore Citizen Quiz

Last week, I read about an app that would help would-be Singaporeans pass their Singapore Citizenship Journey, which is a mandatory orientation programme for citizenship applicants. It involves an online quiz. Here are some sample questions:

1) When was the Singapore Tourism Board established?

2) On which date did Singapore introduce a Goods and Services Tax (GST) to increase the strength of its economy?

3) Who was Singapore's first Prime Minister?

4) Which MRT stations in Singapore took part in Exercise Northstar V?

5) The Bukit Timah peak is Singapore's natural highest point. Can you guess its height?

6) The outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome affected Singapore in which year?

7) What is Singapore's mean annual temperature?

8) What language is the medium of instruction in Singapore schools?

9) What is the name of Singapore's international airport?

10) By what other name is Singapore known as?

Even though I am a Singaporean, I couldn't answer all of them. I got questions 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 wrong. 5/10! What's your score? The answers are below.

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1) 1964

2) April 1, 1994

3) Lee Kuan Yew

4) Toa Payoh, Raffles Place, Dhoby Ghaut, Marina Bay

5) 163m

6) 2003

7) 26.8 deg C

8) English

9) Changi Airport

10) The Lion City

MRT privileged seat - is it a right?

Last evening, I was on my way home on a packed MRT carriage. A pregnant lady boarded shortly after, squeezed her way to the privileged seat (without any 'excuse me'), stood in front of it, and scowled at the passenger occupying it. Upon seeing a pregnant lady, that passenger hurriedly stood up and gave up her seat. And the lady just sat down without a word of thanks.

I was both amused and disgusted. Firstly, squeezing your way deep into a packed train carriage can cause quite a bit of inconvenience, so the least you could do is to say 'excuse me'. Secondly, there are nicer ways to ask for a seat. A simple "sorry, do you mind giving me the seat?" would suffice - and I doubt if many people will outright refuse. (If someone did, he or she will be in for a barrage of dirty looks, including from me.) To add on, the train was packed, so that passenger couldn't see the pregnant lady until she was practically face to face with her tummy. It's not as if she was pretending not to see. And lastly, is it so difficult to thank someone for giving up their seat?

The seat is hers by privilege and not by right. The public is encouraged to give up their seats to the needy, but they are not compelled to. The lady was treating it as if it's her right. Not only that, she seemed to think that no one else should have sat there as long as they don't deserve it - that probably explains her scowl.

This is also one reason why I always prefer to stand in the train.

Working hours: 830am - 6pm versus 930am - 7pm. Is there a difference?

Well, logically, there isn't. It's still the same number of hours. But realistically, it's a huge difference.

Firstly, it takes discipline to come in on time. It takes discipline to wake up on time, to leave your house on time, and to enjoy the rush hour squeeze in the MRT. It is all too easy to wake up late and avoid the peak hour jam. And arrive in office an hour later.

Secondly, people generally only notice what time you leave. Compare someone who makes the effort to come in by 8am but leaves at 6pm - to someone who arrives at 10am and leaves at 7pm. Chances are that people will think that the person who left at 7pm is more hardworking compared to the other that leaves on the dot, even though the former made the effort to come in early and actually clocked one hour more.

Thirdly, one hour of 'work interaction' is gone for the latecomer. From 9am to 10am, what if another colleague had to ask the latecomer something urgently? Basically, work involving the latecomer has to be put on hold for that hour until he or she comes in. Conversely, the earlycomer gets to enjoy one hour of undisturbed productivity.

Lastly, claiming for transport home is obviously unfair. If employees can only claim for their cab fares home if they work beyond 930pm, the latecomer has a big advantage - basically, by the amount of time he came late to office in the morning. Because this is the amount of time he is working less to qualify for this allowance. 

So, remember to give early birds the recognition they deserve. And come to office early.

Pilot

Recently, I jotted down quite a few issues to blog on, but there just wasn't time for me to do so.

So this first entry is to get things going.