Success rates for Servant Enhancements in Fate/Grand Order

So I have been playing the mobile game, Fate/Grand Order, for the past 10 months. I have always been quite curious on the probability rates of their servant enhancements, which can be broken down to the following categories:

• Success - gain the normal experience points
• Super Success - gain 2x the normal experience points
• Great Success - gain 3x the normal experience points

Now that there is a campaign on this, granting double the probability of getting a Super or Great success, I decided to log down the actual observations to estimate the probability. 

After 1,729 observations, which is definitely a sufficiently large sample size, 1,306 were Success, 362 were Super Success, and 61 were Great Success. 

Interestingly, the probability seemed to have stabilised from the 400th to 900th attempt at around 79% (for the Success probability). Subsequently, the trend seemed to be clearly going down (which is good for me as I got more Super and Great Success occurrences).

Based on the observed data, the odds during the campaign are:

• Success - 75.53%
• Super Success - 20.94%
• Great Success - 3.53%

Which also means that during normal times, the odds are around:

• Success - 87.77%
• Super Success - 10.47%
• Great Success - 1.76%

My guess is that the actual probability settings are 88% / 10% / 2%.

Steamed Squid with Garlic and Soy Sauce

Steamed Squid with Garlic and Soy Sauce

Ingredients:

3 whole squids
5 teaspoons of minced garlic
1 teaspoon of butter
1 teaspoon of sugar
6 teaspoons of light soy sauce
2 teaspoons of fish sauce
1 teaspoon of oyster sauce
2 teaspoons of sesame oil
2 teaspoons of cooking wine
A handful of spring onions

Instructions:

1) Clean the squids, cut it to rings and place it on a steaming plate.

2) Boil around 1 cup of water, then add the garlic in and a pinch of salt.

3) Let it simmer for 5 minutes, then drain. Mix the butter with the garlic uniformly.

4) Mix the sugar, light soy sauce, fish sauce, oyster sauce, sesame oil and cooking wine together. Pour it onto the squid.

5) Top the squid with the garlic-butter mixture, then steam it for 3 minutes.

6) Garnish with spring onions and serve.