So I have been playing the mobile game, Fate/Grand Order, for the past 10 months. I have always been quite curious on the probability rates of their servant enhancements, which can be broken down to the following categories:
- Success - gain the normal experience points
- Super Success - gain 2x the normal experience points
- Great Success - gain 3x the normal experience points
After 1,729 observations, which is definitely a sufficiently large sample size, 1,306 were Success, 362 were Super Success, and 61 were Great Success.
Interestingly, the probability seemed to have stabilised from the 400th to 900th attempt at around 79% (for the Success probability). Subsequently, the trend seemed to be clearly going down (which is good for me as I got more Super and Great Success occurrences).
Based on the observed data, the odds during the campaign are:
Based on the observed data, the odds during the campaign are:
- Success - 75.53%
- Super Success - 20.94%
- Great Success - 3.53%
Which also means that during normal times, the odds are around:
- Success - 87.77%
- Super Success - 10.47%
- Great Success - 1.76%
My guess is that the actual probability settings are 88% / 10% / 2%.
Hello Grouchy Goomba, I'm an amateur data scientist that is also a Fate/Grand Order player. I found your blog post about Super/Great Success really interesting. Would you happen to still have the data for your findings and would you be willing to share it? Thanks, Edzy
ReplyDeleteHi there! As a matter of fact I do. Let me know your email and I can send it over.
DeleteGreat, could you send it to addyzee001@gmail.com ?
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