If only....

So TT is our next president. As much as I am glad that TKL did not win (hell, he only got 4.9% of the votes. But I do feel sorry that he didn't even manage to get back his election deposit), I am a bit disappointed that TCB did not win. Still, it is undeniable that TT has the experience and bearing to be our next president. 

Considering the results - TT 35.2%, TCB 34.8%, TJS 25.1%, TKL 4.9% - it is clear that history would have changed if TJS and TKL had not contested. 

If TKL had not contested, chances are high that TCB would be president now. From TKL's profile, people who did not vote for TKL would most likely have voted for TJS. But some would still spill over to TCB. Even a 10% share would have given TCB around an extra 0.5%, edging him over TT. It is rather unlikely that TKL's supporters would vote for TT.

If TJS had not contested, TCB would most likely have won as well. Similarly, quite a number of the 25.1% would have gone to either TCB or TKL. TT would most probably get some votes too, but the proportion is expected to be less. Again, this number of extra votes would have given TCB the edge over TT.

If websites such as The Temasek Review etc had not endorsed TJS as their presidential choice, things would have probably changed. They reached out especially to netizens who did not know who to vote for (but knew who not to vote for - TT). So in an attempt to unify the people's votes against TT, they decided to focus on TJS. How many votes did they sway? This is hard to say. But knowing that TJS managed to clinch 25.1% of votes, this brings me back to my previous point. If these websites had endorsed TCB, my Facebook would probably be full of people celebrating instead of mourning. TJS was also the last one who contested. It seems rather amusing that he was granted the Certificate of Eligibility even though he had not managed a company with $100 million market cap or equivalent.  Managing $100 million of AUM (assets under management) is an entirely different thing, which gave rise to suspicions that TJS was allowed to run just to dilute the votes against TT. 

It is interesting to note this. Are the people who voted against TT:

A) Pro-opposition?

B) Anti-PAP?

C) Neutral but want something to change?

D) Pro PAP but sick of PAP's arrogance?